Interesting. Biden might have won. He stepped aside in 2016--a shocking decision for a two-term VP with a lifelong thirst for the Presidency. His son Beau's fatal illness seems to have been the reason. We tend to forget how solid Hillary Clinton's candidacy looked in 2015 and the strong momentum behind the possibility of the first female president. The fact remains, however, that Donald Trump--in 2016 and today--was an opponent that, in a normal cycle, Democrats could only have dreamed of, and the fact that the Dems couldn't beat him--not just once, but twice--is the political story of 21st-century American politics. ANYONE should have been able to trounce that guy. Back then I certainly had no real idea that the Tea Party movement represented a fire alarm, the first instantiation of a huge, racist backlash to Obama's two terms that would overtake Democrats in 2016 and that is running the show nine years later. That is the dynamic that washed away every single piece of conventional political wisdom in 2016 and that may be ensuring that the U.S. will be fascist for at least a generation. Personally, pondering all the many possible 2016 outcomes that wouldn't have resulted in a Trump victory is just too fucking painful.
The thing I remember about Hillary’s candidacy is not her “unbeatabilty”, it’s that the D party just handed it to her because it was “her turn.” Plenty of Bernie bros and other Ds would not hold their nose and vote for her.
The Dems also seemed like they just handed the candidacy to Harris, well, because Biden’s incapacities were revealed too late.
That Trump lost to Biden but beat two female candidates brings up another pernicious attitude in swing voters besides racism.
The thing I remember about the 2016 Democratic primaries is that the Democratic voters chose Clinton. She was the favorite of the party leadership, without a doubt, but she slugged it out just like every other candidate through fifty U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, and, in the end, she had a thousand more delegates than her nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders. There are a multitude of phony myths about those primaries. I know this because I was a Sanders supporter myself, and I spent the next year arguing with those fucking moronic Bernie bros, who promoted the completely false claim that the nomination had been stolen from her due to unfair Party rules worked--rules that everyone, including Sanders and the Bernie bros themselves, had known about (or should have known about) for four years. And the fact is that the superdelegates didn't give her the margin of victory, either. If people can't deal with Clinton winning the nomination fair and square (she beat Sanders' brains out in every diverse state except Michigan--the Bernie bros never seemed to wonder about why no people of color got on board with their progressive program), that's not her fault or the party's fault. She wasn't anointed. But Harris was, in a technical sense. Not because the Party didn't want to have primaries, but because Team Biden's cover up of the fact that our incumbent candidate had very real physical and mental problems caused an eleventh-hour implosion and therefore didn't allow time for a primary, much less an anointing. And denying Harris, the Party's VP and a Black woman, the nomination would have torn the party completely apart. Misogyny is ABSOLUTELY a huge problem in American politics--this whole MAGA nightmare is toxic masculinity writ large--but, mostly because there have been so few female contenders, it has not played nearly as large a the role in Presidential politics as race.
Misogyny, racism, fear of change, fly over state resentment…it’s a dark and concentrated cocktail of hatred.
Thought experiment #2: the Supreme Court somehow rules that Trump can run for a third term…but then so can Obama. Just imagine the debate. And the shellacking Trump and the Rs would get in the election.
Thought experiment: what if Biden had been the Democratic candidate in 2016?
I think Obama was being facetious in 2008 when he told Hilary to her face that she was “likable enough” (or he meant just to democratic voters).
Even Trump did not expect to really win in ‘16 and he sure didn’t make plans to actually serve as President. Just wanted to get attention, claim “fixed election” and then burnish his then-tarnished TRUMP brand for more scammy licensing deals. He was so blindly lucky to run against H Clinton (who didn’t really even campaign in Wisconsin).
A youthful and vigorous Biden would have beat Trump in ‘16, like he did in ‘20. And Trump would have then likely just grousingly slunk away to try more biz scams.
Interesting. Biden might have won. He stepped aside in 2016--a shocking decision for a two-term VP with a lifelong thirst for the Presidency. His son Beau's fatal illness seems to have been the reason. We tend to forget how solid Hillary Clinton's candidacy looked in 2015 and the strong momentum behind the possibility of the first female president. The fact remains, however, that Donald Trump--in 2016 and today--was an opponent that, in a normal cycle, Democrats could only have dreamed of, and the fact that the Dems couldn't beat him--not just once, but twice--is the political story of 21st-century American politics. ANYONE should have been able to trounce that guy. Back then I certainly had no real idea that the Tea Party movement represented a fire alarm, the first instantiation of a huge, racist backlash to Obama's two terms that would overtake Democrats in 2016 and that is running the show nine years later. That is the dynamic that washed away every single piece of conventional political wisdom in 2016 and that may be ensuring that the U.S. will be fascist for at least a generation. Personally, pondering all the many possible 2016 outcomes that wouldn't have resulted in a Trump victory is just too fucking painful.
The thing I remember about Hillary’s candidacy is not her “unbeatabilty”, it’s that the D party just handed it to her because it was “her turn.” Plenty of Bernie bros and other Ds would not hold their nose and vote for her.
The Dems also seemed like they just handed the candidacy to Harris, well, because Biden’s incapacities were revealed too late.
That Trump lost to Biden but beat two female candidates brings up another pernicious attitude in swing voters besides racism.
The thing I remember about the 2016 Democratic primaries is that the Democratic voters chose Clinton. She was the favorite of the party leadership, without a doubt, but she slugged it out just like every other candidate through fifty U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, and, in the end, she had a thousand more delegates than her nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders. There are a multitude of phony myths about those primaries. I know this because I was a Sanders supporter myself, and I spent the next year arguing with those fucking moronic Bernie bros, who promoted the completely false claim that the nomination had been stolen from her due to unfair Party rules worked--rules that everyone, including Sanders and the Bernie bros themselves, had known about (or should have known about) for four years. And the fact is that the superdelegates didn't give her the margin of victory, either. If people can't deal with Clinton winning the nomination fair and square (she beat Sanders' brains out in every diverse state except Michigan--the Bernie bros never seemed to wonder about why no people of color got on board with their progressive program), that's not her fault or the party's fault. She wasn't anointed. But Harris was, in a technical sense. Not because the Party didn't want to have primaries, but because Team Biden's cover up of the fact that our incumbent candidate had very real physical and mental problems caused an eleventh-hour implosion and therefore didn't allow time for a primary, much less an anointing. And denying Harris, the Party's VP and a Black woman, the nomination would have torn the party completely apart. Misogyny is ABSOLUTELY a huge problem in American politics--this whole MAGA nightmare is toxic masculinity writ large--but, mostly because there have been so few female contenders, it has not played nearly as large a the role in Presidential politics as race.
Misogyny, racism, fear of change, fly over state resentment…it’s a dark and concentrated cocktail of hatred.
Thought experiment #2: the Supreme Court somehow rules that Trump can run for a third term…but then so can Obama. Just imagine the debate. And the shellacking Trump and the Rs would get in the election.
(A guy can dream….)
Thought experiment: what if Biden had been the Democratic candidate in 2016?
I think Obama was being facetious in 2008 when he told Hilary to her face that she was “likable enough” (or he meant just to democratic voters).
Even Trump did not expect to really win in ‘16 and he sure didn’t make plans to actually serve as President. Just wanted to get attention, claim “fixed election” and then burnish his then-tarnished TRUMP brand for more scammy licensing deals. He was so blindly lucky to run against H Clinton (who didn’t really even campaign in Wisconsin).
A youthful and vigorous Biden would have beat Trump in ‘16, like he did in ‘20. And Trump would have then likely just grousingly slunk away to try more biz scams.
But now here we are.